1）天然气降价实现了燃煤发电的替代。自 2007 年煤电产能达到峰值以来，燃煤发电使用量稳步下降，而天然气使用量持续增加，主要是由于天然气价格持续下降。然而，这一趋势在 2021 年发生逆转，输送到美国发电机的燃气平均成本为 4.88 美元/台，是 2020 年平均成本的两倍多，因此燃气在发电中的份额从 2020 年的 40.53% 将下降到 38.34%。到2021年，燃煤发电比重将从20.70%提高到22.45%。
2）以光伏为主导的可再生能源发展迅速，逐步替代天然气，运营成本更低。根据EIA预测，2022年美国电网将新增46.1GW公用事业发电容量（指地面电站），2022年计划新增容量的46%将来自光伏发电，其次是天然气，占21%，还有风能。占 17%。相应地，2022年地面电站新增容量为21.5GW，远高于2021年15.5GW的新增容量。2022年新增地面开关项目主要集中在德州（约6.1GW，占比28%）全国总量），其次是加利福尼亚（约 4GW）。在德克萨斯州和中西部等可再生能源增长较快的地区，燃气发电预计将逐渐减少。
基于 ITC 的政策和成本降低推动光伏装置的高增长
2010-2021 美国光伏新增装机年均复合增长率为35.25%。 2019年之后，光伏成为美国新发电的主要来源。美国光伏的快速发展主要依赖于：1）电力成本的降低； 2）ITC的税收优惠政策。光伏经济性的提升是光伏成为主要发电来源的基石，而ITC的税收减免政策则是美国光伏发展的催化剂。
光伏发电成本迅速下降，成为最经济的能源。随着电池技术的不断进步，光伏千瓦时的成本不断下降。 2013年经济超过煤炭，2015年超过天然气，2019年超过风能成为最经济的能源。2021年不考虑政府补贴的光伏千瓦时。成本已降至 36 美元/MWh，接近 2009 年电力成本的十分之一。同时，美国市场电价的持续上涨也强化了其经济性。
2）2010-2011年，奥巴马政府在2009年签署了《经济刺激法案》，其中第1603条规定，可再生能源项目建成后，美国财政部必须在60年内以现金返还项目成本的30% days, 2011 2010年2月到期，引发2010年行业装机热潮。2010年太阳能新增装机容量849MW，同比增长120.5%。随着第 1603 号法案延长至 2012 年 2 月，它继续引发新的光伏发电装机激增，达到1.92GW，同比增长126.3%。 2012年，光伏发电装机增速放缓。
Photovoltaic power generation has become the largest new power generation source, and there is huge room for penetration improvement. In the past two years, solar energy, wind energy and natural gas have replaced all coal-fired power generation in the new installed capacity, accounting for about 99%. Solar energy expanded the fastest and became the main source of new power generation, accounting for 46% in 2021. However, in the U.S. power generation structure in 2021, solar power generation only accounts for 2.86% of the total power generation, and there is still much room to improve the penetration rate.
Photovoltaic led renewable energy is gradually replacing traditional energy
Reviewing the changes in the energy structure of the U.S. market, it has gone through two stages:
1) The price reduction of natural gas has realized the substitution of coal-fired power generation. Since the peak of coal-fired power capacity in 2007, the use of coal-fired power generation has decreased steadily, while the use of natural gas has continued to increase, mainly due to the continuous decline of natural gas prices. However, this trend was reversed in 2021. The average cost of gas delivered to U.S. generators was $4.88/set, more than twice the average cost in 2020. Therefore, the share of gas in power generation will drop from 40.53% in 2020 to 38.34%. By 2021, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will increase from 20.70% to 22.45%.
2) Photovoltaic led renewable energy has developed rapidly and gradually replaced natural gas, with lower operating costs. According to EIA prediction, the US power grid will add 46.1gw of utility power generation capacity (referring to ground power stations) in 2022. 46% of the planned new capacity in 2022 will come from photovoltaic power generation, followed by natural gas, accounting for 21%, and wind energy. 17%. Accordingly, the new capacity of ground power stations in 2022 will be 21.5gw, much higher than the new capacity of 15.5gw in 2021. The new ground switch projects in 2022 are mainly concentrated in Texas (about 6.1gw, accounting for 28% of the national total), followed by California (about 4gw). In Texas, Midwest and other regions with rapid growth of renewable energy, gas-fired power generation is expected to gradually decrease.
ITC based policies and cost reduction drive the high growth of photovoltaic devices
From 2010 to 2021, the average annual compound growth rate of new PV installed capacity in the United States was 35.25%. After 2019, PV will become the main source of new power generation in the United States. The rapid development of photovoltaic in the United States mainly depends on: 1) the reduction of power cost; 2) ITC's preferential tax policies. The improvement of PV economy is the cornerstone for PV to become a major source of power generation, and ITC's tax relief policy is the catalyst for the development of PV in the United States.
The cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped rapidly and become the most economical energy. With the continuous progress of battery technology, the cost of photovoltaic kilowatt hour continues to decline. The economy surpassed coal in 2013, natural gas in 2015, and wind energy as the most economical energy in 2019. In 2021, photovoltaic kwh without government subsidies will be considered. The cost has dropped to $36 /mwh, which is close to one tenth of the power cost in 2009. At the same time, the continuous rise of electricity prices in the U.S. market has also strengthened its economy.
In the past, ITC tax credit policy has been the core driving force for the rapid growth of new PV installed capacity in the United States. The preferential tax policy for solar energy investment is an important policy mechanism for the federal government to support the development of solar energy. Since the implementation of ITC in 2006, the U.S. photovoltaic industry has increased by more than 100 times.
1) In 2008, when the policy was formulated in 2006, ITC policy required to be implemented until the end of 2008. In 2008, the industry was unable to determine whether the follow-up policy would be delayed, resulting in rush loading. The annual newly installed capacity was 298mw, an increase of 86.25% month on month. In December2008, the federal government decided to extend the ITC policy for 8 years, and the market growth slowed down in 2009.
2) From 2010 to 2011, the Obama administration signed the economic stimulus act in 2009. Article 1603 of the act stipulates that after the renewable energy project is completed, the U.S. Treasury must return 30% of the project cost in cash within 60 years, which expires in February 2011 and 2010, triggering an industry installation boom in 2010. In 2010, the newly installed capacity of solar energy was 849mw, a year-on-year increase of 120.5%. With the extension of act 1603 to february2012, it continued to trigger a surge in new PV power generation installations, reaching 1.92gw, a year-on-year increase of 126.3%. In 2012, the growth rate of installed PV power generation slowed down.
3) In 2016, the ITC policy, which has been extended for 8 years since 2009, will expire at the end of 2016. American photovoltaic enterprises have arranged the project plan in advance. The prepared projects were still implemented as planned, driving the new installed capacity of the United States to reach a record high of 15.1gw in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 101.7%.